Rare is the Ironman participant that doesn't least at least peek at the applicable qualifying cut-offs to see if they have a chance of earning a slot for Kona.
Ironman China in 2008 is an interesting prospect for those desiring a spot because it is a new race in a country that has never held an official Ironman race. While it is an awfully long way to go to earn a Kona slot, some triathletes might think they can skirt some of the competition by going somewhere so far off of the beaten path. That is the exact sentiment of MarkAllen Online which
noted, "
Popular
triathlon destinations with large triathlete populations usually have
very competitive qualifying races. Racing in more remote qualifying
races or in foreign non-European races usually results in a weaker race
field thus improving your chances."David Warden's
Tri-Talk attempted to quantify this strategy and created a rather detailed
analysis of the 20+ Ironman World Championship qualifiers based on the relative difficulty of earning a slot. Unfortunately it was updated prior to the announcement of Ironman China and even if he updated it now he wouldn't have any data with which to judge the newly created China race. Regardless, if you are focused on getting a Kona slot then Warden's article and accompanying Podcast is a must read/listen.
At the most basic level, the best prospects for qualifying would be a race with a large number of slots (proportional to the overall number of racers) and lower levels of performance. As Warden points out in his analysis, you can't simply look at finishing times since that does not factor in the significant differences in course difficulty. Instead you need to come up with a benchmark for course difficulty (Warden uses top finishers) and then compare the qualifying standards in each age group against that benchmark. However, as we noted, none of this applies to China since it is a new race. Let's see what we can do without previous finishing times.
According to the Ironman China
website, Ironman China will have 50 slots (pro and age
group) for Kona. This compares somewhat favorably with other races
including Western Australia (25) and Brazil (50) while understandably
less than established and much larger races such as German (120), New Zealand (80),
Switzerland (75).
The Ironman China promoters have announced a cap of 1,500 racers split between the 70.3 and the full IM with a maximum number of 70.3 racers being 300. If they achieve their stated goal of selling out the races then we can assume then a range of 1200-1300 IM racers, a small total in comparison to races like IM Canada but larger than Ironman Western Australia which has had less than 1,000 start. But how fierce will the competition be?
Perhaps the best comparison would be
Ironman Korea which had about 1,100 registered and under 1,000 finishers. Like China it had 50 slots (though only 2 were given to pros so it actually had more age group slots than China is expected to have). Looking at the results in a non-scientific way, they just seem less competitive than other races as finishing even a 12-hour Ironman would place you in the top 100. However if you looked at Dave Warden's analysis you will see that Korea does not stand out as any easier to qualify than other races.
After looking at Warden's data and the results of over a dozen Ironman races, I don't see enough of a difference that it would affect one race over another. I think a better strategy is to pick a race that you think offers you the greatest advantage vis-a-vis your competitors in terms of expected conditions and course type. If you live in a warm weather climate and can stay fit in the winter, then an early Ironman might make sense for you (though MarkAllen online reports that early-season qualifiers tend to be fairly competitive and they suggest going for the last qualifiers which also see much farther "roll downs" for slots than the early races).
Similarly, if you live in colder climate, an April race might simply be too early to have the fitness for a 140 mile race. Other factors would be the type of swim (ocean versus lake) and bike course (hilly or flat), which could help you select venues that might be more favorable to your chances to have your best race. To me China looks to be very "Kona-like". Hainan is a tropical climate known for being windy. Like Kona, I think the course will favor strong cyclists.
If I had to make a prediction, I think the remote location of the venue might give it a slight, temporary advantage for Kona-seekers but expect that advantage to disappear as the race becomes more established. If the race goes well then expect scores of very fast Europeans to be pouring over the results and especially the age group qualifying slots.
Happy training.