Oct. 16, 2006 -- Opinions. Enery knucklehead has one. Still, despite the potential foolhardiness of attempting to predict the outcome at the Hawaii Ironman on Oct. 21, Triathlete mag editors, writers and friends have teamed up to offer your their below picks for the 2006 Kona champions.
John Duke
Triathlete publisher
Normann Stadler. With Peter Reid no longer in the picture, I believe Normann and Faris Al-Sultan will drop field and race off into the sunset. I give the advantage to Normann because he will be racing on anger and will want to prove he deserved to win in ’05.
Michellie Jones. I think Michellie has an advantage over Natascha Badmann because she has a race under her belt and will have a full year of run training (unlike 2005). The dark horse is Lori Bowden, but she will need the ride of her life to be in the same time zone as Michellie and Natascha.
Shane Smith
Former pro and senior consultant to Ironman Australia and Western Australia
Chris McCormack. The rule in most Kona predictions seems to be never picking against the reigning champion. However, in the men’s race, history shows that only Dave Scott, Mark Allen and Tim DeBoom have been able to win back-to-back titles. Faris Al-Sultan is possibly the most talented athlete in the sport, but slipping under the radar to win in Kona is easier than having to defend under the scrutiny of the world’s press. The pressure this year will be intense. If he can handle it, he can win.
Michellie Jones. Picking Michellie Jones to win in Kona is an easy choice. Her record over the Ironman distance (where her worst performance is a second place) and the 70.3 events has been stunning. Her strength in all three disciplines gives her a distinct advantage over most of her competitors, with the obvious exception being Badmann.
Jay Prasuhn
Triathlete senior editor
Chris McCormack. McCormack came out swinging years ago with a bravado that was summarily batted down by the Kona pressure cooker. Last year Macca finally lived up to his potential by bouncing back from an upset stomach on the bike to reel off the fastest run and finish fifth. A good bike backed by a run like last year and Macca could punch his victory ticket.
Michellie Jones. Her physical talent is unsurpassed, her segue to Ironman seamless—in a rookie effort at Kona. With an added year of experience and mileage, she now knows what to expect from the race and how to anticipate and react to Natascha's moves. And it never hurts to have Paula Newby-Fraser on your advisory council.
Cameron Elford
Triathlete managing editor
Normann Stadler. As the 2004 Hawaii winner, Stadler knows what it takes to win here. Plus, without having to worry about Peter Reid pressing the pace on the bike and agitating the chase pack, or charging from behind on the run, Stadler will be able to take a few more risks in Kona and take a flier early on the bike. He'll have plenty to worry about on the run, however, from a balanced Faris Al-Sultan, the defending Kona champ, a hungry Chris McCormack and a resurgent Tim DeBoom. Still, Al-Sultan's run let him down at the Quelle Challenge, in Roth in July, suggesting that the German star may be feeling the weight of the Kona crown.
Michellie Jones. Australia's Michellie Jones is flat-out one of the most talented athletes ever to race triathlon. After an unparalleled short-course career, Jones raced her first Hawaii Ironman last year and placed second to six-time winner Natascha Badmann. While Badmann is almost unbeatable on the lava, at almost 40, the Swiss star has got to begin slowing down at some point—we think.
Rebecca Roozen
Triathlete associate editor
Chris McCormack. He’s coming off a strong third-consecutive win at the 2006 Quelle Challenge Roth where he beat out Faris on the run. He’s done his intense altitude training in the Swiss Alps. He’s been a top contender for the Hawaii crown for a few years, paying his dues. Now, it’s time for Macca to win the darn thing.
Lori Bowden. She just might be the Comeback Queen. In early ’06, Bowden eased her way back into racing after giving birth to son Tyson. Just 10 months later she scored a remarkable second-place finish at Ironman Austria. This fit mama is going to shake things up for Michellie and Natascha.
Don Ryder
Ironman race announcer
Normann Stadler. He will be back with a vengeance to lay to rest last year’s disastrous mechanical difficulties that cost him the chance to defend his title. Stadler’s greatest strength will be the motivation he has to prove that his win in ’04 was no fluke. This motivation combined with his natural talent and experience will make for a tough-to-beat combination. If Normann hooks up with Faris on the bike, look out for this dynamic duo to head onto the run with an insurmountable lead.
Natascha Badmann. The Swiss Miss has it all dialed in. Grace is her greatest strength. She is consistent and never seems to have a bad day. Not a factor to win but deserving special mention in the women’s race is Fernanda Keller. The Brazilian will be competing in her 20th-consecutive Hawaii. And she has been no mere participant, collecting 17 top-15 finishes; eight being in top 10, six of which were third place.
T.J. Murphy
Triathlete editor-in-chief
Rutger Beke. After being falsely accused of doping in 2004, Beke could have simply walked away from the sport. Beke weathered cynicism, anger and hate from the media and fans in 2005. Yet he prevailed. He received his vindication after an emotionally draining fight in which few believed in him. The courageous Beke managed a fourth-place finish in Kona, while spectators cursed at him. He’s earned at least one Kona victory.
Michellie Jones. She’ll destroy everyone on the bike, and then threaten to split a sub-three-hour marathon. She hasn’t raced in the harsher conditions, but rest assured she’s trained and prepared for them.
Rob Docherty
Publisher of xtri.com
Cameron Brown. Stronger and fitter than ever, Brown is the only form horse going into this year's race, something that has never happened before. I’ve been predicting a win for Team Kiwi for the last three years, but with Reid gone, and the Germans and North Americans failing to impress this year, things have never looked so good for him.
Michellie Jones. Natascha is a fantastic competitor, but she has found a worthy rival in Michellie. More evenly matched on the bike than anyone in the last 10 years, when you add her much stronger swim, another 12 months of Ironman training and the experience garnered last October in Kona, I think she now has all the ammunition required to go the whole way.
Matt Fitzgerald
Author of Triathlete Magazine's Essential Week-By-Week Training Guide
Chris McCormack. I've been calling on Macca to win the Big One since the first time he entered. But this time I mean it. He’s as awesomely talented as ever and he's coming off the fastest run split in Kona last year. The idea of Chris McCormack retiring without a Hawaii Ironman World Championship title is like the idea of Phil Mickelson retiring without a major championship title—until he won his first major championship. But if Macca falters, Al-Sultan will repeat.
Michellie Jones. Sooner or later Badmann has to be too old to win Hawaii. I've been betting she's too old for three years now. But this time I mean it. And Jones is clearly next in line. For her, winning could be as "easy" as having learned from last year's training and racing experience—something you can count on a genius of the sport like her to have done. If Michellie screws up her nutrition and winds up extending the hallowed Kona tradition of crawling to the finish line, Badmann will scoot by her, beaming from ear to ear. My wild bet is Joanna Lawn, because I think she thinks she could win.
Michael Kunst
Photographer and former editor of Triathlete magazine Germany
Faris Al-Sultan. I think Al-Sultan could do it again. You know why? Finishing Roth in second was a good sign: He’ll be in his peak condition in Kona, precisely at the right in moment. Faris is a relaxed and well-balanced athlete; to me this means his mind is clear, one of the most important preparations you can make for the Hawaii Ironman.
Natascha Badmann. I do not think Badmann can be beaten. A surprise could be Karin Thürig, another outstanding athlete from Switzerland and stronger on the bike than Natascha. Karin is the Swiss national time-trial champion and a great duathlete, and she showed with her win in Lanzarote this year that she’s in good form to compete in at the Ironman distance.