By Cameron Elford
Oct. 10, 2007 -- In 2006, Australia's Michellie Jones stunned the sport when she whooped six-time defending Ford Ironman world champion Natascha Badmann, from Switzerland, to take her first Ironman world title and prove that experience in Kona, while important, can be trumped by talent, hard work and sheer force of will.
On the men's side in 2006, Germany's Normann Stadler, fueled in part by a desperate bid to prove his 2004 Kona win was anything but a one-hit wonder, attacked from the beginning of the swim to build an insurmountable advantage on the bike and take his second victory here. In the intervening 12 months, however, Stadler, 2006 runner-up Chris McCormack and third-place Faris Al-Sultan have engaged in an at-times bitter war of words, with each athlete clearly voicing his desire to take the Kona title in 2007.
"I think the top three are pretty clear on paper, anyway: Normann, Faris and Macca," said six-time Hawaii champ Mark Allen today. "But I would definitely say it's not a slam dunk for any of them, because they could get so preoccupied with looking at each other, trying to break each other, that there are a few undercover guys who could walk away with it or get away when no one's thinking about them, and the next thing they know it's too late to regroup."
"Normann was definitely fueled by anger last year," continued Allen. "He came across the line and flipped off the universe. This year . . . he doesn't seem to have that same type of fire - whether he can race without it, I don't know. Macca . . . he definitely wants to win, but I don't think he plays into that as much as the press is trying to make him seem like he is. It's definitely a rivalry . . . but I think the best rivalries are those that are intense but where those involved also have deep respect for one another. Even though Dave [Scott] and I had a great rivalry, I think there was real respect underneath it for each other as athletes and people. Like anything, there are healthy ways of having something and unhealthy, and time will play out and see which one this is."
"It turned into fairly good sparring, and it seemed a bit bitter," echoed six-time Kona winner Dave Scott about the slow-boiling Macca-Al Sultan-Stadler verbal battle. "But a year goes by, and some of those . . . wounds seem to heal a bit."
Still, Scott believes the 2007 Kona contest will likely shape up differently from last year, which may change the race dynamic to favor those athletes with a more well-rounded attack. "I doubt that [Faris] will let Normann or anyone get away from him [on the bike] -- at least to the extent of last year," Scott says.
Additionally, despite the three-way contest that many pundits predict will take shape on the Queen Kaahumanu Highway on Saturday, Scott, like Allen, believes the men's field in particular boasts deep talent that could lead to an unexpected outcome. "Craig Alexander is a bit of a dark horse. He's enormously talented at all distances," says Scott. "He runs like a demon and likes warm weather, so he could be someone that no one's even really considered."
Badmann, Jones expected to top women's fieldDespite the influx of new talent to the Hawaii Ironman, with Texas's Desiree Ficker finishing a close second behind Jones in 2006 and Australia's Kate Major also expected to make a significant impact this year, many see the 2007 race shaping up as a battle between Jones and Badmann.
"I think the women's field is a little more clear cut than the men's: Michellie-Natascha for first and second, and third is definitely more open," says Allen. "[Australia's] Kate Major seems to be very fit this year and relaxed."
"I think Natascha has the hand -- the foot -- up on this one," says Allen. "She seemed to have that force in her body that she did on those years when she won it." But, notes Allen, "she's old [Badmann turns 41 in December], she doesn't have too many of these left, and I'm sure she'd like to go out with one more."
Still, the top women will have their work cut out for them, with 70.3 world champion Sam McGlone, from Canada, a potential spoiler on race day. "Sam McGlone -- I'd say the only disadvantage she has is just not having the experience here," says Allen. "My guess is she'll have the tools, but she'll need to hone them. She could pull off the win, she could blow up, she could be top three -- she's an unknown wild card for sure."
"I think Sam is pretty tough," agrees Scott. "She's pretty good at the halves, so she could step up here."
For her part, defending Kona champ Jones exudes a quiet confidence while giving little away, despite the ongoing speculation and handicapping by hangers-on. "It's . . . an Ironman, but I'm looking forward to it to see how it all unfolds," says Jones. "For me it's about racing my race rather than trying to race someone else's race. You've gotta remember it's a long day."
"I'm looking forward to it," Jones continues. "I think I'm in better shape than I was last year. I'm looking forward to seeing the results of all that hard work."
The X factorPerhaps more than any other triathlon, the Hawaii Ironman is defined by the weather, which can be ferocious with powerful, gusting winds whipping out of the Kohala Mountains to the north as athletes make their way to the bike turnaround point in Hawi, at the northern tip of the Big Island, compounded by hot, stifling air on the marathon. Still, athletes in 2006 were granted a relative respite from the Kona blast furnace, prompting many to speculate that 2007 could bring a return to the punishing weather that has been the hallmark of this race in so many years past.
"Today is like a normal, typical Kona day that we used to always have in the '80s," noted Scott, suggesting that if the current weather pattern holds Saturday could bring more challenging conditions. "It's typically windy out there. The last two years the conditions have been so favorable; it's been astonishingly unbelievable weather-wise. I just can't imagine having another year like that."
"I think [tough conditions] would favor Normann," continues Scott. "He's mentally strong; he doesn't need to have the peloton with him. I think if they get big head winds he's going to have to fight like everyone else, but I think he'd make up more time, but it ultimately comes down to the run. . . . It's so funny to see the instant drop-off on the start of the run. I'd like to see about six guys right there at the halfway point of the marathon. We've never seen that. Why not? Maybe it's this year."
Still, Jones is ready for whatever the day may throw at her. "I always go into it thinking it's going to be the worst horrible day that you could have, and if it's not I'm like 'Whoo-hoo!' But if it is I'm prepared."